Monday, May 14, 2018

Predicting the future

I have enjoyed the BBC Predictor game on the BBC website predicting Premier League results. At one stage I was 9th. I finished the season 37th out of a total of players: 464709 which is not bad. I am proud to have beaten Lawro the BBC's expert pundit . The winner had 3750 points. I was 230 behind him. The last time I could check Lawro was 70 adrift of me.
    What have I learnt? Form is the key. I look at the league tables primarily then previous results. I used to look at the betting but all that tells you is other peoples' opinions but it can be a check to save you from a  careless mistake.
But form goes out of the window at the end of the season when those going down start beating better teams. 
Main lessons are, it is an inherently unpredictable game. Form may give you a reasonable indication of the result and perhaps a clue to the score. But scores are most unpredictable.
     It does not tempt me to bet. Its you want to double your money, fold it over and put it back in your wallet. You cannot beat the bookies on this really. They do the math. They win.

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